How Likely Are You to Be Murdered by a Serial Killer

You should probably lock your doors before reading this

Geraint Clarke
2 min readApr 6, 2022


Photo by Kyle Johnson on Unsplash

We’ve all felt it, the cold chill of presence in our supposed empty space. Often it’s a trick of the mind. A cocktail of darkness, paranoia, and fear.

However, for many, it’s not. It’s exactly what they assumed it would be… Their imminent death.

It got me thinking, “How likely are you to be murdered by a serial killer?”

Not by a jealous lover, or a corrupt business partner — but by a pure, deranged stranger.

In the United States

In 2019, there were 16,425 homicides recorded in the United States. With an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 more murders in 2020.

That’s a huge number that creates an average of 18,675 homicides per year, for the last two years.

Given the population of over 333 million, it means 0.005% of them will, unfortunately, become victims.

Aka, US Citizens have around a 1 in 200 chance of getting murdered.

However, according to the FBI, serial murders make up less than 1% of all murders in any given year.

If we estimate using just 1% it reduces your chances of being murdered randomly by a serial killer to…

1 in 17,824

Meaning you’re statistically more likely to win an Oscar than you are to be a victim of serial murder.

In the United Kingdom

Thankfully, the murder rate in the UK is far lower than that of our American cousins.

Using the same estimations against the murder rate in the UK (695 last year) and combining that with the difference in population — we have far better odds.

You have an estimated 1 in 95,899 chance that a serial killer will murder you in the UK.

Now before you leave your doors unlocked, consider this. You’re statistically 470 times more likely to be killed by a serial killer than you are to win the national lottery jackpot.




Geraint Clarke

Creator of Bespoke Marketing Campaigns… Follow Me for Practical Business & Self-development Lessons.